EVM Counting starts 8:00 AM IST Survey closes 7:30 AM IST • 234 seats • Majority: 118
Exit Poll Snapshot
Vote Recorded!
Your vote was cast for:
One vote per device • Thank you!
Which party did you vote for?
Select the party you voted for on April 23
Official Exit Poll Results 2026
Counting Day — May 4, 2026
These are predictions only. EVMs hold the real result. Majority needed: 118 of 234 seats.
DMK+
AIADMK+
TVK
NTK
Others
No agency published sample size or full methodology. Axis My India uniquely predicts TVK 98–120 seats. Official results on May 4, 2026.
How Exit Polls Work in Tamil Nadu
Step 1: The Scale Problem
5.73 crore voters vs 50,000 surveyed
Tamil Nadu had 5.73 crore registered voters in 2026. About 4.85 crore actually voted (85.1% turnout — highest since 1952).
Exit poll agencies surveyed approximately 30,000 to 80,000 people. That is only 0.06% to 0.16% of all voters.
0.16%
Surveyed: ~80,000Not surveyed: 4.84 crore
Step 2: Booth Selection
93,000+ booths, only ~800 covered
TN has over 93,000 polling booths across 38 districts. Each agency selects a sample of booths — typically standing outside and asking every 5th or 10th voter.
Axis My India
~60,000–80,000 respondents
~1% booths
Today's Chanakya
~50,000–70,000
~0.8% booths
People's Pulse
~30,000–50,000
~0.5% booths
Sun Exit Poll
~20,000–35,000
~0.3% booths
None of the agencies published their actual sample size. These are estimates based on industry standards.
Step 3: Real Example — Chennai Egmore
How one constituency gets surveyed
Chennai Egmore has 1,50,000 voters across 250 booths.
The surveyor visits 5 booths only and asks every 10th voter coming out. Total collected: ~400 responses out of 1,50,000.
Survey result from 400 people:
38%
30%
24%
5%
38% DMK
30% AIADMK
24% TVK
5% NTK
Problem: 245 booths out of 250 were never visited. The remaining 1,46,000 voters have zero representation in this survey!
Step 4: Why Voters Don't Tell Truth
The hidden vote problem
Even among the small number surveyed, many voters don't reveal their real choice.
Who Hides Vote
Young TVK voters (fear family reaction)
Women (husband standing nearby)
Rural voters (caste pressure)
First time voters (shy)
Evening voters (surveyor left by 5 PM)
Who Tells Truth
DMK loyalists (proud, no fear)
AIADMK loyalists (confident)
Morning voters (surveyor active)
Urban educated voters
Male voters (no social pressure)
Result: TVK votes are systematically undercounted in every exit poll because TVK's strongest supporters (youth, women, rural) are the least likely to disclose their vote to a stranger.
Past TN Exit Poll Accuracy
How wrong were they before?
How accurate were exit polls in previous Tamil Nadu elections?
2021
Predicted: DMK 145–160
Actual: 133 seats
Off by 20+
2016
Predicted: Close fight
Actual: AIADMK 134
Completely wrong
2011
Predicted: DMK may win
Actual: AIADMK 150
Completely wrong
TN exit polls have never been fully accurate. They consistently overestimate the ruling party and underestimate new political forces.
Bottom Line
What should you trust?
Exit polls = Educated guess with major blind spots.
The only real answer is inside the EVM machines. On May 4, 2026 at 8:00 AM IST, official counting begins and the truth will be revealed — one constituency at a time.
0.16%
Voters surveyed
0%
Published sample sizes
100%
EVMs counted on May 4
234
Seats to be declared
Live Survey Results
Total: 0 votes
Unofficial survey. Not affiliated with ECI. Votes stored locally.